In a world where raw materials underpin every aspect of modern life, 2026 stands as a pivotal year of transformation and opportunity.

Markets are navigating a delicate balance between legacy energy systems and the urgent push towards sustainability.

This journey is fraught with volatility, yet it offers unprecedented chances for those who can read the signals and adapt swiftly.

As we delve into the outlook, remember that commodities are not just assets; they are the lifeblood of economies and the foundation of our future.

Understanding these shifts is key to thriving in an era defined by change and innovation.

The Macro Landscape: A World in Flux

Broad commodity markets enter 2026 with cautious optimism, shaped by years of turbulence and evolving demands.

According to projections, global commodity prices are expected to decline by 7%, marking the fourth consecutive year of decrease.

This trend is driven by subdued economic growth, persistent trade tensions, and an ample supply of oil.

However, beneath this overarching dip, structural shifts are creating powerful currents that redefine value and risk.

The energy transition, for instance, is reducing demand for traditional fuels while boosting needs for critical metals.

With over 20 million electric vehicles sold globally in 2025, accounting for more than 25% of new cars, the automotive landscape is transforming rapidly.

This shift not only curbs oil consumption but also elevates the importance of materials like copper and lithium.

Infrastructure spending and green investments are further bolstering resilience in industrial metals, offering a counterbalance to broader price softness.

This table highlights the divergent paths across sectors, emphasizing where opportunities and challenges lie.

It serves as a crucial tool for investors and businesses aiming to navigate these complex waters.

Energy Commodities: The Transitional Tide

Oil and gas markets face a period of adjustment, with abundant supply leading to softer prices in the near term.

Brent crude is projected to average $68 per barrel in 2025, falling to $60 in 2026 due to a supply surplus and minimal demand growth.

This downturn reflects the broader move away from fossil fuels, yet natural gas and uranium present contrasting narratives.

In the United States, natural gas prices are expected to rise by 11% in 2026, driven by robust LNG exports and domestic demand.

Europe, however, may see an 11% drop due to ample imports and diversified energy sources.

Uranium emerges as a standout, with prices potentially reaching $100 per pound by end-2026, a 33% increase from current levels.

This surge is fueled by growing nuclear demand and supply risks from mines in Africa, the US, and Kazakhstan.

• Oil prices are pressured by EV adoption and oversupply, requiring strategic hedging.
• Natural gas markets show regional disparities, offering arbitrage opportunities.
• Uranium's bullish outlook underscores its role in the clean energy mix.

These dynamics call for a nuanced approach to energy investments, balancing traditional and emerging sources.

Industrial and Base Metals: The Green Revolution's Backbone

Metals are poised for significant growth, driven by the global push towards renewable energy and electrification.

Copper and aluminum, in particular, are rallying due to demand from wiring, lightweight vehicles, and solar or wind infrastructure.

Citi analysts predict that the bull market in precious metals will broaden to include these industrial metals in 2026.

This expansion is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve, lower real rates, and stimulus measures worldwide.

Metals prices have demonstrated notable resilience, with base metals rebounding in Q3 2025 on strong demand and trade policies.

However, challenges like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could impact non-EU producers, particularly in steel and fertilizers.

This policy may raise import costs and squeeze margins in the first half of 2026, adding a layer of complexity to global trade.

• Copper is essential for EVs and grids, with supply disruptions posing risks.
• Aluminum benefits from lightweighting trends in transportation and construction.
• Precious metals like gold and silver continue to attract safe-haven investment.
• Policy interventions require careful monitoring to avoid unexpected costs.

Investors should focus on sectors with strong tailwinds while remaining vigilant about regulatory changes.

Agriculture and Fertilizers: Stability Amidst Change

Agricultural markets enter 2026 with a sense of cautious optimism, having stabilized after the volatility of recent years.

Ample grain supplies, such as wheat and corn, have led to softer prices in 2025, providing relief to consumers.

Demand is rising from population growth and increasing incomes in emerging markets, where diets are shifting towards more protein.

New uses like biofuels and plant-based products are expanding trade volumes and creating novel market opportunities.

The agriculture index is projected to remain stable in 2025, with a slight 2% decline in 2026.

Food and raw materials prices are expected to be unchanged, while beverages may drop by 7% due to output adjustments.

Fertilizer prices surged by 21% in 2025, driven by urea demand, trade curbs, and supply shortfalls.

Although easing in 2026, they will remain above the 2015-19 average, influenced by nitrogen costs and geopolitical sanctions.

Risks include input costs and China's export policies, which could disrupt global supply chains and affect profitability.

• Grain markets benefit from stability but face threats from weather extremes.
• Fertilizers are critical inputs, with elevated prices impacting farming costs.
• China's strategic grain purchases could absorb surpluses and influence global prices.
• Emerging uses like biofuels add new demand streams for agricultural products.

Farmers and agribusinesses must adopt adaptive strategies to thrive in this evolving landscape.

Key Drivers and Trends: Forces Shaping the Future

Several interconnected factors will dictate the commodity landscape in 2026, requiring careful analysis and proactive planning.

Energy transition and green investments are unprecedented in scale, with massive capital flowing into renewables, EVs, and grids across major economies.

This boosts demand for metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, and cobalt, creating new growth avenues.

Policy and geopolitics play a crucial role, with EU CBAM mainstreaming carbon costs and trade tensions creating uncertainties.

China's factors, including a property slowdown and grain stockpiling, add another layer of complexity to global dynamics.

Supply and demand imbalances, such as the oil surplus and metals resilience, will continue to influence price movements.

Macroeconomic conditions, with sturdy global GDP growth and Federal Reserve rate cuts, provide a supportive backdrop for commodity markets.

• Green investments drive structural demand shifts, requiring long-term vision.
• Geopolitical risks from trade wars can cause sudden price spikes and disruptions.
• China's economic policies are a wildcard, affecting global commodity flows.
• Supply constraints in sectors like uranium offer lucrative investment opportunities.
• Infrastructure spending stabilizes growth and supports industrial metal demand.

Understanding these drivers is essential for making informed decisions and capitalizing on emerging trends.

Navigating Risks and Seizing Opportunities: A Balanced Approach

While the outlook has bright spots, risks abound that could derail projections and challenge stakeholders.

Geopolitical shocks, extreme weather events, and trade disputes over commodities like soybeans pose significant threats to stability.

Input costs, such as natural gas for fertilizers, can escalate quickly, impacting profitability and supply chains.

Conflicting views from institutions highlight the uncertainty, with some optimistic on metals and others bearish on overall prices.

Practical steps for stakeholders include diversifying portfolios, hedging against volatility, and staying agile in response to policy changes.

For investors, focusing on sectors with tailwinds like uranium and industrial metals could yield substantial returns.

Businesses should invest in efficiency and sustainable practices to mitigate carbon costs and supply chain risks, ensuring long-term viability.

• Monitor geopolitical developments and weather patterns to anticipate disruptions.
• Diversify investments across commodities to spread risk and enhance resilience.
• Engage with policy trends, such as CBAM, to anticipate and manage costs.
• Leverage technology for better supply chain management and data-driven insights.
• Stay informed through reliable sources and expert analysis to make timely decisions.

By embracing these strategies, one can ride the waves of raw material shifts with confidence and foresight.

The journey through 2026's commodity markets will be challenging, but it is full of potential for those who are prepared.

With insight, adaptability, and a commitment to sustainability, the tides of change can be harnessed for growth, innovation, and a brighter future for all.