As 2025 approaches, global spending intentions are painting a complex picture of caution, optimism, and opportunity. Investors who understand these shifts can position portfolios to benefit from emerging consumer behaviors.

Global Consumer Spending Outlook

Recent surveys show that over 75% of consumers worldwide expect flat or reduced personal spending next year, marking a 12% decline in net intent compared to 2024. Yet, nominal U.S. consumer spending is forecast to grow by 2.3% to 3.7%, depending on the source, suggesting underlying resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Regional divergence is stark:

• China and Middle East forecast net spending increases of 10% and 13%, respectively.
• Developed markets such as the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany show net declines in spending intentions, ranging from 16% to 30%.
• Post-election sentiment in the U.S. has shifted more positively, with a 14-percentage point improvement in spending intent.

Demographic Spending Patterns

Income and age groups reveal divergent behaviors that investors can harness:

• High-income consumers: 31% plan to spend more, 19% less.
• Medium-income consumers: 20% plan to spend more, 27% less.
• Low-income consumers: 16% plan to spend more, while 36% intend to cut back.
• Younger adults (18–34) continue to lead growth, spending roughly 5.9% more month-to-date in May, driven by Gen Z and Millennials.
• Older consumers (55+) are the most cautious, skewing toward reduced spending.

Category-Specific Spending Trends

Spending on essentials remains robust even as consumers trim discretionary categories. Groceries and basic food items are resilient, with over 80% of households expecting to maintain or increase spending. Celebratory food purchases are particularly strong, as 45% plan to spend more on special occasions.

In contrast, non-food retail, dining out, entertainment, and clothing are under pressure:

• One-third of global consumers plan to spend less on non-food retail.
• 34% intend to cut back on eating out, though markets like the UAE and China buck this trend.
• 31% will reduce travel spend, balanced by 28% who plan to increase it.

Geographic Divergence in Spending Intentions

Understanding regional variation is critical for global investment strategies. The table below summarizes net spending intentions and drivers by region:

Consumer Sentiment and Confidence Drivers

Despite caution, certain factors support consumption. Low unemployment and rising wages fortify household balance sheets, while delinquencies remain below long-term averages. A notable 74% of global respondents worry about rising prices, yet this represents a slight improvement from previous months.

Key reasons for spending reductions include reordered priorities, desire for healthier lifestyles, and readily available at-home entertainment options. Tariff concerns also play a role, with concerned shoppers cutting gift spending by about 10%.

Emerging Trends and Behavioral Shifts

GenAI adoption has surged by 50% from February to November 2025, enabling personalized shopping experiences and efficient home-based entertainment. Consumers are increasingly seeking value-driven retail options, prioritizing brands that understand their needs rather than merely offering discounts.

Spring break and holiday planning also reveal pockets of opportunity. Gen X and Gen Z intend to spend more on travel experiences and home improvement projects, signaling that even in restraint, spending is selectively robust.

Investment Opportunity Framework

Translating these consumer patterns into investment insights leads to several compelling themes:

• Essential goods resilience: Companies in grocery, consumables, and staples benefit from sustained demand.
• Income-tiered strategies: Target premium brands for affluent consumers and value retailers for budget-conscious segments.
• Regional plays: Focus on China and Middle East growth stories while hedging Western consumer caution.
• Digital enablement: Invest in e-commerce platforms and GenAI-driven personalization tools.
• Experience economy: Cruise lines, travel platforms, and boutique hospitality firms cater to pent-up demand.

Additional considerations include potential housing market recovery as interest rates ease in 2026, stability in the labor market supporting upper-income consumption, and credit instruments that benefit from modest delinquency improvements.

Conclusion

Consumer spending in 2025 will not follow a uniform path. Variations by region, income, age, and category create a mosaic of opportunity for savvy investors. By aligning portfolios with resilient essential sectors, growth markets, and digital enablers, investors can navigate uncertainty and capture value.

As spending priorities shift, the companies that understand and anticipate consumer needs will thrive. In this evolving landscape, strategic allocation to growth themes and diversified exposure across demographics offer a roadmap to lasting returns.